BACKGROUND

State departments of transportation (DOTs) face a complex landscape, complicated by challenges like the COVID-19 pandemic, requiring a careful balance between long-term planning and immediate operational needs. Since 2004, the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) has actively supported agencies by developing tools and reports such as VisionEval and scenario planning guidebooks. Additionally, the Transportation Research Board (TRB) highlighted the need for agility and preparedness by organizing scenario planning conferences in 2016 and 2022, underscoring the importance of being ready for disruptions. Numerous NCHRP research efforts have contributed to preparedness, focusing on scenario planning, including:

• NCHRP Project 08-36/Task 113, “The Future of Transportation Planning in State DOTs”
• NCHRP Project 08-36/Task 145, “Scenario Planning Lite”
• NCHRP Project 08-93, “Managing Risk Across the Enterprise: A Guidebook for State Departments of Transportation”
• NCHRP Project 20-126 (01), “Programmatic Issues of Future System Performance”
• NCHRP Project 08-154, “Guidance for Agencies to Incorporate Uncertainty into Long-Range Transportation Planning”

Despite the availability of resources, the adoption of scenario planning has been slow, largely due to a lack of expertise, capacity, and executive focus. These gaps hinder the effective navigation of the rapidly changing transportation landscape. Moreover, state DOTs face challenges in keeping pace with these changes, highlighting the growing importance of scenario planning.

However, there is a significant opportunity to implement a robust strategy that promotes the adoption of scenario planning and agile decision-making, both essential for connecting communities and addressing evolving transportation needs. This strategy should focus on senior leadership, management, and operations, providing comprehensive and accessible resources along with technical support to build capacity within agencies. By engaging agencies directly, the strategy will address key disruptions such as workforce challenges, capital preservation, and technological change.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this research is to develop targeted activities and resources that will facilitate improved decision-making and encourage greater adoption of scenario planning methods by state DOTs.                        

In developing these activities and resources, the following considerations should be addressed.

• Comprehensive coverage: While a variety of tools and resources exist for scenario planning, current materials often fail to support decision-making at all levels within a state DOT.
• Clear outcomes: Despite multiple initiatives, the outcomes of scenario planning are often unclear, partly due to a limited understanding of its benefits.
• Uniform adoption: Scenario planning has not been uniformly adopted across or within state DOTs, and the barriers to adoption are not always well understood.
• Varied sophistication: The level of sophistication in scenario planning varies significantly across and within organizations.
• Effective engagement: There is a need to develop more effective engagement processes with state DOTs, the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO), and FHWA.
• Standardization and clarity: The diverse range of practices under the "scenario planning" umbrella requires clarification and standardization.
• Scalable implementation: Successful implementation hinges on identifying and engaging key audiences, ensuring scalability, and using clear, straightforward language.

RESEARCH PLAN

To achieve the research objective, the research plan shall describe appropriate tasks and deliverables, including but not limited to the following.

1. Implementation Plan: A comprehensive plan designed to achieve the research objective in alignment with the “NCHRP Active Implementation: Moving Research into Practice" guidelines (see Special Note J). This plan should identify barriers and drivers influencing the implementation of scenario planning methods, as well as outline long-term trends and short-term disruptions. Collaboration with NCHRP will be essential to address these factors within budget constraints.

2. Interim Report: A report summarizing the analyses and results of completed tasks, along with a plan for the remaining tasks and a detailed outline of the final research product(s).

3. Final Deliverables: Comprehensive resources for current and future practitioners and stakeholders of scenario planning, supplemented by a research report that thoroughly documents the research process.

STATUS: Proposals have been received in response to the RFP. The project panel will meet to select a contractor to perform the work.