BACKGROUND

State departments of transportation (DOTs) face a complex landscape, complicated by challenges like the COVID-19 pandemic, requiring a careful balance between long-term planning and immediate operational needs. Since 2004, the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) has actively supported agencies by developing tools and reports such as VisionEval and scenario planning guidebooks. Additionally, the Transportation Research Board (TRB) highlighted the need for agility and preparedness by organizing scenario planning conferences in 2016 and 2022, underscoring the importance of being ready for disruptions. Numerous NCHRP research efforts have contributed to preparedness, focusing on scenario planning, including:

• NCHRP Project 08-36/Task 113, “The Future of Transportation Planning in State DOTs”
• NCHRP Project 08-36/Task 145, “Scenario Planning Lite”
• NCHRP Project 08-93, “Managing Risk Across the Enterprise: A Guidebook for State Departments of Transportation”
• NCHRP Project 20-126 (01), “Programmatic Issues of Future System Performance”
• NCHRP Project 08-154, “Guidance for Agencies to Incorporate Uncertainty into Long-Range Transportation Planning”

Despite the availability of resources, the adoption of scenario planning has been slow, largely due to a lack of expertise, capacity, and executive focus. These gaps hinder the effective navigation of the rapidly changing transportation landscape. Moreover, state DOTs face challenges in keeping pace with these changes, highlighting the growing importance of scenario planning.

However, there is a significant opportunity to implement a robust strategy that promotes the adoption of scenario planning and agile decision-making, both essential for connecting communities and addressing evolving transportation needs. This strategy should focus on senior leadership, management, and operations, providing comprehensive and accessible resources along with technical support to build capacity within agencies. By engaging agencies directly, the strategy will address key disruptions such as workforce challenges, capital preservation, and technological change.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this research is to develop targeted activities and resources that will facilitate improved decision-making and encourage greater adoption of scenario planning methods by state DOTs.