NCHRP Research Report 1113 provides a guide to travel demand modeling practitioners to consider new mobility options (NMOs) in travel demand forecasting models (TDFMs). The guide documents the potential magnitude of NMO impacts on TDFMs and their components affected by NMOs, and instructions on updating TDFMs components. The guide identified the challenge related to available data needed to effectively use TDFMs to consider NMOs and the guide proposes the use of synthetic data until observable data is collected in the jurisdiction where the modeling will forecast travel demand. The guide will be of interest to traffic demand modeling professionals at state departments of transportation (DOTs) and other public agencies.
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Emerging transportation technologies and shared mobility services, or NMOs, are impacting travel behavior and demand. NMOs may include shared micro-mobility, transportation networking companies (TNCs), or connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs). As NMOs grow in availability and use, transportation planners and decision-makers need to understand how to harness positive and mitigate negative impacts. One of the primary tools available to understand potential impacts and future uncertainty is travel demand forecasting models (TDFMs). However, many current-generation TDFMs do not explicitly include these NMOs. Therefore, there was a need to identify best practices, case studies, and strategies to incorporate NMOs in travel demand modeling to better inform decision-making and investment selection processes.
Under NCHRP 20-102(29), “Incorporating New Mobility Options into Travel Demand Forecasting and Modeling,” the University of Central Florida was asked to develop a practitioners’ guide for DOTs and metropolitan planning organizations looking to incorporate NMOs into TDFMs. The research team developed three use cases that exhibit NMOs in TDFMs with real data for base scenarios and synthetic data for NMO scenarios.
In addition to the guide, published as NCHRP Research Report 1113 available at https://doi.org/10.17226/27827, the following deliverables are available on the National Academies Press website by searching for NCHRP Research Report 1113.
