American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials

Special Committee on Research and Innovation

FY2023 NCHRP PROBLEM STATEMENT TEMPLATE

Problem Number: 2023-B-35

Problem Title

Impacts of E-Commerce on Travel and Land Use Patterns

Background Information and Need For Research

E-commerce (electronic commerce) generally refers to the buying and selling of goods and services over an electronic network, primarily the internet. In other words, it primarily refers to the processes involved in storing and shipping inventory for an online store or marketplace, including inventory management and the picking and shipping of online orders. These transactions occur either as business-to-business (B2B), business-to-consumer (B2C), consumer-to-consumer or consumer-to-business. In 2019, Amazon delivered more than 2.5 billion packages in the U.S. which is approximately 20 packages for every household. As per U.S Census Bureau, e-commerce retail sales as a percentage of total sales increased from 4.7% in Quarter 1 of 2011 to 13.7% in Quarter 1 of 2021. Of these purchases, an estimated 5 percent are same-day deliveries, which may increase to 15 percent within 5 years. E-commerce retail sales increased from $46 billion in 2011 to $215 billion in 2021.

The rapid growth of e-commerce trends seems likely to have transformational impacts on land use and transportation in settings ranging from small cities to intensely urban and large cities. Some of the identified potential direct impacts include environmental risks, safety risks, travel behavior pattern changes, congestion growth and evolving freight demand. Similarly, potential indirect impacts may include changes of land use patterns (locations of warehousing, distribution, and intermodal transfer facilities and jobs), personal travel behavior shifts (commuting, shopping, and recreation), evolving supply chain logistics and property value changes. Other unaccounted externalities might be truck parking shortages, competition for curb space, impacts to brick and mortal retail and policy considerations like local tax revenue streams. With more people choosing same-day or next day shipping, requiring more vehicles and less optimized distribution/routing, the transportation system is being pushed towards technological innovation like drones and automated deliveries as well.

With these trends growing by the day, it is imperative that State departments of transportation (DOTs), metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs), local government authorities, and other public-sector decision makers are increasingly confronted with questions of how to consider the potential consequences that e-commerce may have on urban/regional economic activity, land use, and transportation demand; and how to manage public investments in transportation facilities and services to maintain economic vitality and high quality of life.

The high level of growth and uncertainty in long-term urban e-commerce travel is the biggest challenge. Hence, a comprehensive research approach is needed to identify impacts of e-commerce on the transportation system and land use and strategies to address them. This study is expected to answer how can e-commerce travel trends be incorporated by state DOTs and other public-sector agencies in transportation and urban freight planning, design, and operations.

Literature Search Summary

E-commerce has been well-defined and studied from the private sector point of view. But e-commerce definitions are still not clear for public-sector planning for transportation as well as urban planning and design. Similarly, e-commerce needs to be classified for transportation, economic activity and land-use needs. A comprehensive literature review on this subject will be the foundation of this research. Many studies have speculated the direct and indirect impacts of e-commerce on transportation systems. But, it has been a challenge to quantify them with lack of sufficient data. A meta-analysis of studies on this topic will benefit public-sector agencies to outline areas of improvements in their decision-making. E-commerce is contributing heavily towards changing the personal and freight travel behavior patterns. Normally, revealed, or stated preference household travel surveys and commodity flow freight surveys are the best solutions to gauge these behavior patterns. The study will identify if there are any local or regional surveys being conducted to understand e-commerce impacts and will provide robust recommendations on how we can leverage existing survey mechanisms to bolster our understanding of e-commerce. Other data sources like probe datasets and commercial proprietary sources will be reviewed as well.

Research Objective

Across various other studies and contexts, there is a growing recognition that trends in e-commerce can have tremendous transportation and land use impacts. The current state of practice in transportation lends itself to the conclusion that advances in e-commerce research need to be integrated into planning, design, and operation norms to help account for unforeseen negative externalities. To this effect, research comprising a literature review, survey of stakeholders, and evaluation framework should be undertaken to advance the development of methodologies to plan for e-commerce growth.

1. Define e-commerce and identify types of e-commerce travel; jobs and land use types supporting e-commerce.

• Survey of existing practices and datasets (land-use, commodity flow and others).

• Conducting a comprehensive literature review.

• Standardizing definitions and classification schemes to characterize e-commerce from perspective of transportation and land-use.

2. Identify and examine direct as well as indirect impacts of e-commerce on transportation.

• Survey of existing practices and conducting stakeholder engagement to identify different impacts. Relevant stakeholders include (but not limited to) residential and commercial interests, as well as municipal authorities who can speak to e-commerce impacts.

• Standardizing approaches to quantify direct and indirect impacts which can be seamlessly integrated in urban transportation/freight planning and design studies.

3. Development of a theoretical and methodological framework to evaluate e-commerce impacts on transportation and land-use

• Data Needs and Assessment for statistical analyses and evaluations.

• Stakeholder Inputs for empirical evidence.

• Identifying gaps in literature.

• Developing a comprehensive framework or solutions toolbox useful for federal, state, and regional as well as local agencies.

Urgency And Potential Benefits

E-commerce and its supporting technological innovations have drastically changed our daily lives, mostly enhancing our quality of life. However, it is an urgent need for state DOTs and other public agency decision-makers to integrate this reality in transportation planning, operations, and design. Continuing to apply older planning and design guidance, without taking account of major changes due to e-commerce trends, will leave state and local agencies unable to fully respond to negative externalities and unintended impacts of these transportation activities.

Implementation Considerations and Supporters

Any official, such as within a state or city DOT, who is responsible for modeling freight transportation trends or developing and applying policies to mitigate externalities, would benefit from the proposed research results. If this research results in a fully developed framework or solutions toolbox, as proposed above, it can be immediately applied to relevant planning and forecasting activities.

Adoption and implementation of this research would further benefit from training workshops for affected state DOT practitioners and training or peer exchange with city officials to learn about the major findings and how to use the framework/solutions toolbox.

This research needs statement is supported by:

• AT025 - Standing Committee on Urban Freight Transportation, Bill Eisele (Chair), b-eisele@tti.tamu.edu

• AASHTO Special Committee on Freight, Caroline Kieltyka (AASHTO Liaison), ckieltyka@aashto.org, 202-624-8489

Recommended Research Funding and Research Period

Recommending $400,000 for 24 months of study, toolbox development, and dissemination of findings.

Problem Statement Author(s): For each author, provide their name, affiliation, email address and phone.

Makarand Gawade, HDR Inc., (402) 617-5398, Makarand.Gawade@hdrinc.com

Matthew Reiter, University of California - Berkeley, (512) 627-0952, matthew.reiter@berkeley.edu

Potential Panel Members: For each panel member, provide their name, affiliation, email address and phone.

Makarand Gawade, HDR Inc., (402) 617-5398, Makarand.Gawade@hdrinc.com

Matthew Reiter, University of California - Berkeley, (512) 627-0952, matthew.reiter@berkeley.edu

Casey Wells, Texas Department of Transportation, (512) 423-8986 , Casey.Wells@txdot.gov

Person Submitting The Problem Statement: Name, affiliation, email address and phone.

Casey Wells

Statewide Planning Branch Manager

Texas Department of Transportation

Casey.Wells@txdot.gov

(512) 423-8986