American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials

Special Committee on Research and Innovation

FY2023 NCHRP PROBLEM STATEMENT TEMPLATE

Problem Number: 2023-B-01

Problem Title

Guidelines for Use of the FEMA’s National Risk Index in State Highway Transportation Planning

Background Information and Need For Research

The Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) National Risk Index (NRI) analyzes eighteen natural hazards (e.g., hurricanes, tornadoes, winter weather) and computes natural hazard exposure, frequency, historic loss ratio, expected annual loss, risk scores, and ratings for each hazard in each county and Census tract in the US. The risk methodology includes three components: a natural hazard component (expected annual loss), a consequence enhancing component (social vulnerability), and a consequence reduction component (community resilience).

While the NRI goes beyond the expected annual loss (EAL) statistic, this important quantitative component utilizes hazard-specific innovative methods for developing frequency and historical loss data that is now available to the public. It also contains a consequence factor that considers buildings, population, and agriculture exposure to each of the 18 natural hazards. It is expected that the EAL statistic will be widely relied upon for community preparedness and planning, supply chain vulnerability modeling, and for insurance purposes. It is envisioned that FEMA will continue to revise and improve various hazard methodologies as new data and methods become available.

The NRI web application enables data interactions analyses, reports, and access to downloadable county and Census tract data. This tool was developed to help support natural hazard planning for emergency managers for cities and states and can be used to inform funding decisions at local and federal levels. As State DOTs are continually looking for ways to adapt and incorporate increased natural hazard severity into capital planning, they would benefit from new interpretative guidance.

Although guidance for incorporating natural hazards into transportation planning exists (e.g., NCHRP Report 931: A Guide to Emergency Management at State Transportation Agencies) , additional interpretive guidance is needed to help State DOTs consistently, and correctly, apply the NRI information including the annualized frequency, consequence exposure, historic loss, and expected annual loss components and additional factors for social vulnerability and community resilience.

Literature Search Summary

TRB has funded a number of research projects related to this area and these have the potential to inform new guidelines for natural hazard resilience planning. A few selected studies include the development of all-hazards emergency management and response guidelines (NCHRP 20-116; NCHRP Research Report 931; NCHRP 14-45), pilot testing of climate change design practices (NCHRP 20-44(23); NCHRP 15-80; NCHRP 15-61), a framework for flood event decision making (NCHRP 20-59(53)), and support for state DOT system resilience and all-hazards programs (NCHRP 20-59(56); NCHRP 20-117).

State DOTs and transportation research institutions have also published their own research on local natural hazard resilience improvement projects. These projects are typically isolated and function as individual models for specific areas and hazards. Many projects center on evaluation of natural hazard threats and capital planning projects to mitigate hazard impacts. However, some projects aim to improve response following a hazard event. For example, California has developed a transportation-specific web application in partnership with USGS called ShakeCast which enables rapid emergency response during earthquakes and prioritizes bridges for inspection based on proximity to the epicenter and earthquake magnitude.

Research Objective

To develop guidelines for use of the National Risk Index (NRI) in State highway transportation planning. The guidelines will include practical advice on interpreting the hazard-specific and composite risk score and component values for the purposes of 1) revising existing hazard mitigation plans, emergency response plans, capital investment plans, and strategic plans and 2) improving decision-making and analysis in other common-use case scenarios (e.g., local zoning, insurance). The guidelines will also include contextual advice on how to use NRI data for inclusion in risk assessments and designing risk mitigation strategies to address risk.

Urgency and Potential Benefits

Many State DOTs would immediately benefit from new interpretative guidance on the use of NRI. There is an urgent need to clarify how to compare community scores and what the scores should mean in the context of decision-making around capital investments and insurance. This project would incorporate the most current NRI data and supporting documentation and guidance developed as part of this research could then be released to State DOTs with the most up-to-date information.

Implementation Considerations

It is not anticipated that there would be any barriers in implementation. The guidelines could be readily used by State DOTs after publication.

This research needs statement is supported by:

TRB AT000 Freight Systems Group

AASHTO Special Committee on Freight, Caroline Kieltyka (AASHTO Liaison), ckieltyka@aashto.org, 202-624-8489

Recommended Research Funding and Research Period

It is estimated that a budget of $350,000 and 18 months would be needed to complete this research.

Problem Statement Author(S): For each author, provide their name, affiliation, email address and phone.

Richard Bornhorst, FACTOR, Inc.

rbornhorst@factorinc.com

(202) 381.0622

Potential Panel Members: For each panel member, provide their name, affiliation, email address and phone.

Tom McQueen, Georgia Department of Transportation, tmcqueen@dot.ga.gov, 404.631.1785

Person Submitting The Problem Statement: Name, affiliation, email address and phone.

AASHTO Special Committee on Freight

Caroline Kieltyka (AASHTO Liaison)

ckieltyka@aashto.org

202-624-8489