The National Academies

NCHRP 08-24A [Final]

Forecasting the Basic Inputs to Transportation Planning at the Zonal Level

  Project Data
Funds: $192,444
Research Agency: COMSIS Corporation
Principal Investigator: David Levinsohn
Effective Date: 4/1/1987
Completion Date: 2/28/1990

Transportation planners forecast travel demand on the basis of anticipated changes in socioeconomic variables such as population, employment, vehicle availability, income, and household size. Errors in the forecasts of these variables can lead to substantial errors in information provided to decision-makers in the evaluation of transportation alternatives. NCHRP Project 8-24 investigated and reported on a portion of this problem area, specifically the preparation of aggregate forecasts for sub-state areas. It examined the sensitivity of the process (and particularly its first step, trip generation) to differences (or errors) in input. However, no analysis of the sensitivity of the process to disaggregation---or variation in aggregation---was performed. This continuation project investigated the availability and utility of methods to produce forecasts for units of sub-county levels of geography, typically traffic zones, either by downward allocation of sub-state forecasts or by direct means.

All research is complete and the final report has been published as NCHRP Report 328, "Forecasting the Basic Inputs to Transportation Planning at the Zonal Level."

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