1. Identify how, when, where, and why uncertainty should be considered in state DOT and MPO planning and programming processes;
2. Develop frameworks, guidance, and/or toolkit(s) to factor uncertainty into LRTPs, STIP/TIPs, and other related planning documents, and that allow state DOTs and MPOs to monitor and implement their plans;
3. Identify strategies and techniques to proactively adapt plans when impacts from uncertainty require agencies to pivot to ultimately achieve their goals; and
4. Identify strategies to communicate with stakeholders, including partners, decision-makers, elected officials, and the public-at-large about uncertainty in transportation planning and programming.

TASKS

Phase I

Task 0: Amplified Research Plan and Kickoff Meeting

Within fifteen days of contract execution, deliver the Amplified Research Plan for panel review and NCHRP approval. The research team shall participate in a project kick-off meeting arranged by NCHRP following the approval of the Amplified Research Plan. The Amplified Research Plan shall include a draft engagement strategy, including the mechanisms of outreach designed to ensure inclusivity across backgrounds and geographies and depth concerning drivers and responses to uncertainty in planning.

Deliverables:

•        Amplified Research Plan

•        Kick-off Meeting Summary

Task 1: Foundational Research: Uncertainty Drivers, Data, and Methods

In Task 1, the research team shall establish a baseline of knowledge on planning and programming in uncertainty. While building upon broader risk management best practices (e.g., NCHRP Project 08-93, Managing Risk Across the Enterprise), the literature review shall focus on long-range planning and linked processes and agency responsibilities, including a focus on performance-based planning principles. In four subtasks, the research team shall identify:

a)     The types of uncertainty which affect transportation agency’s planning and implementation;

b)     How uncertainty can be integrated through planning processes in decision-making;

c)     How agencies can assess the effects of uncertainty; and

d)     The regulatory context inside which agencies will address uncertainty.

The conclusion of the first task shall result in a white paper synthesizing relevant literature and published examples of practice.

Deliverable:

•        Literature Review and Practice White Paper

Task 2: Scan of Practice – Managing Uncertainty and Improving Resilience

In Task 2, the research team shall provide a broad-based scan to identify the landscape of practices used for managing uncertainty and improving resilience within state DOTs and MPOs and in the larger infrastructure and transportation ecosystem. This shall solidify the needs and opportunities to be addressed by the research and serve as a pre-screener to identify cases for Task 3. This task shall also be the first stage of the research team’s engagement strategy, to secure input from a diverse set of practitioners and experts. A questionnaire shall be prepared and executed along with focused interviews. 

Deliverables:

•        Draft Questionnaire and Distribution Plan

•        Outreach Summary Memo

Task 3: Case Studies – State DOT and MPO Practice: Identifying Gaps and Opportunities in Practice

The research team shall pivot in Task 3 toward “deep discovery” within case studies of state DOT and MPO approaches to managing uncertainty, impacts of these approaches on decision-making and operations, and lessons learned (including gaps in practice). The research team shall focus on examples where partnerships—either inside an agency or with external planning partners or stakeholders—were used to identify or respond to uncertainty proactively. Task 3 shall be executed in two phases: (1) pre-screening of candidate cases to identify a recommended set of 4-5 cases, and (2) investigation of processes and methods, including partnerships, used by the case agencies to incorporate uncertainty into planning practices.

Deliverables:

•        Case Recommendations and Plans

•        Case Study Results Memorandum

Task 4: Framework for Managing Uncertainty – Interim Report and Panel Meeting

In Task 4, the research team shall synthesize research to date and establish an architecture for the development of the guide. Building on prior tasks, the research team shall develop a state-of-the-art framework of uncertainty management functions and resource needs that considers both plan and management structure and technical tools to support decision-making. This framework shall provide a structure for the Phase 2 toolkit materials development that is both straightforward and thorough, allowing state DOTs and MPOs to locate the guide and resources based on their needs. The research team shall present findings to NCHRP at an in-person interim meeting. NCHRP approval of the Interim Report and updated Phase II Research Plan is required before work on subsequent tasks may begin. 

Deliverables:

•        Interim Report with updated Phase II Research Plan

•        Panel Meeting and Summary

Phase II

Task 5: Develop Toolkit Components

In Task 5, the research team shall develop specific toolkit resources to fill out the framework developed in Task 4 and address needs identified in Phase 1 of the project. These materials will initially be developed as individual components that can be piloted with transportation agencies in Task 6, after which they will be refined and packaged into the primary guide deliverable for the project.

Deliverable:

•        Toolkit Materials

Task 6: Building a Resilient Organization: Testing and Validation

In Task 6, the research team shall test and validate the approach and materials developed in Tasks 4 and 5, allowing for feedback and refinement before finalization. This task shall provide an opportunity to implement methods that will then be packaged as examples within the guidebook. Task 6 will ensure that the developed guide is appropriate to a range of agency contexts and capabilities and will advance the implementation of this research through applications within the project rather than only after project completion. The research team shall develop a testing plan, work with agencies to test and validate the approach and materials, and conduct a peer exchange.

Deliverables:

•        Testing Plan

•        Agency Testing Workshops

•        Peer Exchange and Feedback Memorandum 

Task 7: Develop Draft Deliverables

In Task 7, the research team shall deliver full drafts of the project deliverables, integrating the toolkit components from Task 5 and the implementation examples from Task 6 into a unified set of products. The deliverables will provide a guide for leaders and practitioners within state DOTs and MPOs on how to incorporate uncertainty into planning and programming and will support the advancement of the research into practice.

This task shall involve documenting the work completed for this project in a Conduct of Research Report, developing a PowerPoint presentation summarizing the research, drafting an article for the TR News, and an implementation plan to disseminate the research. The Conduct of Research Report shall summarize the research we undertook as a part of this study.

Deliverables:

•        Draft Guide on Planning with Uncertainty

•        Draft Executive Summary

•        Draft Conduct of Research Report

•        Draft TR News Article

•        Draft PowerPoint Presentation

•        Draft Implementation Plan

Task 8: Develop Final Deliverables

The research team shall produce revised, final deliverables that incorporate the panel’s input. The research team shall provide written responses to the panel describing how their comments on the guide and other deliverables have been addressed.

Deliverables:

•        Final Guide on Planning with Uncertainty

•        Final Executive Summary

•        Final Conduct of Research Report

•        Final TR News Article

•        Final PowerPoint Presentation

•        Final Implementation Plan

STATUS: Final deliverables pending.