PURPOSE

The purpose of this request is to identify qualified research teams with the appropriate experience and expertise to conduct research related to demographic and technological trends impacting the departments of motor vehicles (DMVs).  It is expected that the research teams will be either private consultants, academics, or a consortium of both.

BACKGROUND

Motor vehicle departments across the United States and Canada are operating in a period of unprecedented change and uncertainty.  DMVs are contending with major social and technological trends that will impact how they are organized and how they function.  These trends include:

•    A wider range of options for consumers provided by transportation-on-demand services, such as Lyft and Uber, and shared mobility services such as Zipcar and bicycle and electric e-scooter rentals.
•    Increased development and deployment of connected and autonomous vehicles.
•    Greater integration of urban mobility options and internet connectivity. 
•    Changes in transportation patterns related to economic and socio-demographic factors.
•    Growing appreciation for the relationship between transportation and public health. 
•    Urban migration and shifts in mobility among age cohorts.
•    Greater recognition of the need for social equity in the provision of transportation services.
•    Increasing availability of cost-effective alternatives to internal combustion vehicles. 
•    Increasing numbers of natural disasters and the need for greater resilience in the transportation system.
•    Greater emphasis on active transportation—walking and cycling.

A recent TRB study looked at the anticipated impacts of just one of these areas: Connected and Autonomous Driving Systems (C/DVS)[1]. The research team surveyed 15 states that had to, or were planning to, modify motor vehicle codes and other existing laws to facilitate implementation of Connected and Autonomous Driving Systems.

These trends are advancing rapidly and DMVs are forecasting how to prepare for the changes to come while advancing their mission, generally framed by the principles of safety, service and security. In the absence of solid data, motor vehicle administrators want insights into possible future scenarios and how each might impact their business models. 

OBJECTIVES

The objectives of this project are to:

•   Identify future medium- and long-term scenarios that may result from the trends identified above, and
•   For a variety of future scenarios, identify (a) the likely key impacts on DMVs, and (b) strategies and actions that motor vehicle administrators could consider in order to continue achieving their mission efficiently and effectively.

It is expected that the successful research team will need to consider the perspectives of, and consult with, experts and forward thinkers from a wide range of backgrounds beyond motor vehicle administrators, including technology, demographics, energy and the environment, sociology, planning, and providers of shared or on-demand transportation services. 

Although this research program does not set out to predict the future, it is important in developing a framework for future-oriented research to assess potential changes that could have significant effects on the fulfillment of driver and vehicle credentials in the context of a safe, secure, and equitable transportation system.