Changes are occurring in many areas that may have major impacts on public transportation ridership. These include changes in demographics, geographic trends, employment, land use, technology, transportation options, and psychographics. To date, however, no single document exists for transit managers, advocates, and elected officials that examines how these factors currently affect transit ridership and how continued changes may impact public transit markets over the coming decades. Improved information will help transit agencies strategically prepare for the future. Available literature improves the ability of analysts and practitioners to understand how changes in key factors influence transportation behavior.
Other research relevant to changing transit markets and travel behavior is examining additional factors that may be driving transit use such as family formation (size); population composition in terms of race and ethnicity; and lifestyles that include walking, biking, and transit use. Developing geographical trends (including regional migration, immigration, metropolitan growth, and emerging megaregions in the U.S.) are likely to impact travel demand and transit markets in the future. Information and communication technologies are becoming ubiquitous, and emerging technologies and mobility services (e.g., smartphone apps, carsharing, bikesharing, and dynamic ride services) are likely to impact the market for public transportation services in different ways in the future.
The objectives of this research are to: (1) provide the public transit community with an improved understanding of how changes over the past two decades have affected the universe of existing and potential transit customers; (2) examine the relevant factors and anticipated trends that may affect future travel behavior; and (3) provide guidance on how these changes may shape public transit marketing strategies, operations improvements, service design, and future capital investments.
The research is complete and published as TCRP Report 201.