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The National Academies

NCHRP 17-68 [Completed]

Intersection Crash Prediction Methods for the Highway Safety Manual

  Project Data
Funds: $600,000
Research Agency: MRI Global
Principal Investigator: Darren J. Torbic
Effective Date: 9/1/2014
Completion Date: 10/31/2018

The objective of the research was to develop a set of crash predictive models consistent with existing methods that are comprehensive in their ability to address a wide range of intersection configurations and traffic control modes in rural and urban areas.

The focus was to be on: 
  1. address intersection configurations and traffic control types not currently addressed in the HSM and
  2. develop supplemental models for predicting the severity distribution as a function of geometric design elements and traffic control features.
The predictive models developed in this research were to include safety performance functions (SPFs), crash modification factors (CMFs), and calibration factors in a format that is consistent with the predictive models in the existing HSM Part C. The predictive models were to be sensitive to the traffic volumes on all intersecting roads and streets, design elements, and traffic control features considered by engineers and planners during the project development process.

The research results are intended for possible inclusion in a future edition of the HSM. Roundabouts shall not be addressed in this research.

STATUS: Research is complete, and publication of final report is pending.  

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