BACKGROUND
The private sector is largely responsible for development and management of the nation’s freight flow system, but public agencies at all levels face important investment and policy decisions that may affect those flows. Decision makers need to understand the large and shifting increases in traffic generated, for example, by ports, inland terminals, and mega-destination centers.
The U.S. Department of Transportation in 2004 launched the Freight Model Improvement Program (FMIP) as a joint effort with the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the U.S. Department of Energy, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and with support from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Each of these agencies has developed models for national-level analysis in support of their own unique missions.
Some state and regional agencies have undertaken their own modeling efforts. The Florida Intermodal Statewide Highway Freight Model, for example, is intended to serve as a planning tool to support the state’s efforts to provide adequate highway connections to other freight modes and regional freight hubs. Agencies in Ohio and Oregon are pursuing similar efforts. The Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority is one of several metropolitan agencies developing and using models for truck traffic in their regions. Other regional and local agencies such as port and toll-road authorities also model the markets they serve. Given the growth in freight and its importance to national, state, and regional economies, public-sector agencies need improved capabilities to analyze freight demand.
OBJECTIVE
The objective of this project is to (a) investigate, identify, and report on high-priority, high-payoff improvements in freight-demand models and other analysis tools and (b) develop a guidebook to assist model developers in implementing these improvements. This project will select one or more of the highest-priority, high-payoff recommendations and develop a comprehensive process to implement the improvement. The recommendations included in the guidebook will ultimately improve the usability of freight-demand models and other analysis tools for public-sector decision makers at a range of geographical levels. The guidebook will relate freight-demand models and other analysis tools to planning; engineering; construction; and use of infrastructure, finance, environmental mitigation, systems operation, and economic impact.
Research will focus on current and future demand for freight transportation (in the context of global and national economic trends and advanced business logistics practices) and should serve as a foundation for future research.
Accomplishment of the project objective will require at least the following tasks.
TASKS (1.) Conduct a review of relevant domestic and international literature, existing research, published practical guidance, existing freight-demand models and other analysis tools, and other appropriate material from public- and private-sector sources (including the contractor’s internal knowledge base) to establish the scope of current knowledge relevant to freight-demand modeling. Collaborate with public and private associations to identify and locate relevant material that is important in public- and private-sector shipment decisions. (2.) Develop a detailed plan for interviews of appropriate freight systems planners, model developers, and public-sector decision makers to (a) describe the current state of practice for freight-demand modeling and other analysis tools, (b) identify high-priority, high-payoff improvements in these freight-demand analysis tools, and (c) identify and describe related corrective actions. The plan should include interview goals, objectives, and questions, and it should recommend categories of interview candidates. (3.) Conduct interviews in accordance with the NCFRP project panel-approved interview plan. (4.) Submit an interim report that analyzes, categorizes, and summarizes the material collected in Tasks 1 and 3 describing the current state of practice for freight-demand modeling and other analysis tools. The interim report should also include (a) a framework identifying the types of analysis tools and models that are appropriate for different-sized organizations; (b) critical questions and issues relevant to analyzing freight demand; (c) deficiencies identified in existing freight-demand models and analysis tools that, if corrected, would improve the accuracy, usability, and application of freight-demand models and analysis tools to a wide range of geographical applications; and (d) related corrective actions (i.e., a work plan to resolve these deficiencies). These deficiencies (beyond a lack of data) could relate to (i) risk assessment, (ii) mode split sensitivity, (iii) the scale of geographic application, (iv) validation, (v) globalization trends, (vi) logistics considerations, and (vii) regionally dominant freight commodities. Within the interim report, develop a plan; identify the capabilities of a research team; and detail a research method, cost, and scope of work to address each of the identified deficiencies for project panel consideration at the interim meeting. Recommend the high-priority, high-payoff improvements for Task 5. (5.) Conduct further research (i.e., address the deficiencies) on selected high-priority, high-payoff improvements in freight-demand models and analysis tools, as approved by the project panel. The number of research efforts and the specific work plan for each will have been approved by the project panel at its meeting with the research team following Task 4. The project panel realizes that many of the deficiencies in freight modeling identified in Tasks 1 through 4 will require more resources than will likely be available at this point in the research project. However, it is the intent of this task to identify some subset of improvements that could reasonably be examined in this research to provide high-payoff benefits to freight-demand modeling. Thus, potential research in Task 5 might include (a) case studies of planning efforts that have included state-of-the-art modeling and analysis practice that could be used by others; (b) focus groups of freight-demand modelers that would examine the best approach toward addressing an identified deficiency from Task 4; (c) development of model specifications or parameters that are being developed by the research team for other projects; or (d) a research workshop that acts as a forum to gather the best information on how to address a specific deficiency. For each deficiency area pursued in Task 5, develop recommendations to implement the recommended improvements. Recommendations should answer such questions as (a) what data are necessary and how should it be collected in a timely and transparent way; (b) what are the user interface requirements and expected knowledge base to implement the recommendation; (c) what is the likely cost; (d) at what geographic scales can the recommended approach be applied; and (e) what are the specific implementation steps needed to implement the recommended action. (6.) Prepare a guidebook with an executive summary that documents the entire research effort, explains and justifies recommendations, provides background information used in the development of recommendations that addresses deficiencies, and recommends further research. Develop and submit a PowerPoint presentation summarizing the main content, key concepts, and most notable conclusions of the report; and a companion “leave-behind” brochure that also summarizes the main content, key concepts, and most notable conclusions of the report. The report should use innovative and creative approaches with text, charts, graphs, photos, flowcharts, and tables in a concise document that is easy to read and written at a level of complexity appropriate for persons who may not be familiar with the depth and details of the freight-demand analysis. Describe long-term visions and industry initiatives that offer future improvements to freight-demand modeling and analysis. The PowerPoint presentation should be designed for a 20-minute delivery and include comprehensive speaker notes embedded in the file. The companion brochure should be provided in electronic format.
