The effects of current trends (e.g., demographic, economic, social, land use, and transport policy) and those expected over the next 15 years on current and future transit markets are discussed. Although many of these trends are not favorable to public transit, a number are identified that provide opportunities for maintaining current transit markets and creating new, expanded, or different transit markets. The report identifies 40 transit service concepts that appear to offer the most effective means of adjusting to these societal trends.

During the past 30 to 40 years, the portion of urban trips carried by public transportation has declined. This decline has resulted largely from such factors as increasing suburbanization, increases in real income and vehicle ownership, changes in family life styles and household composition, and demands for increasing mobility. Will the decline in transit ridership continue or do these factors create a potential for new transit riders? How must transit adjust its services to meet the demands of an ever-changing marketplace? Answers to such questions will be crucial to the future of transit.

Research was undertaken by the Drachman Institute for Land and Regional Developmental Studies, The University of Arizona, to (1) identify the potential effects of anticipated demographic, geographic, economic, technological, and societal trends on today's transit ridership and services and (2) identify future transit markets resulting from these trends and the most appropriate services to address those markets. To achieve the project objectives, the researchers first identified current transit markets using various sources, including the 1990 U.S. Census, 1991 American Housing Survey, and 1990 Nationwide Personal Transportation Study. The researchers then identified projected trends potentially influencing travel. Trends discussed include industrial restructuring; a flexible labor force; work at home and telecommuting; women's labor force participation; growth of the aging population, single-parent and single-adult households; suburbanization; migration and immigration; decreasing population and employment densities; increasing downtown employment density; increasing density in older suburbs; family support relationships; perception of crime; division of household responsibilities; transit funding; relaxation of transportation control mandates; and flexibility of the use of federal transportation funding. An assessment of how these societal trends will probably influence current transit markets was then performed. In addition, potential markets being created by these trends are identified, along with potential service options to meet these emerging needs. Finally, a brief analysis of the equity and efficiency implications of implementing these service options is presented.

The results have been published as TCRP Report No. 28, "Transit Markets of the Future--The Challenge of Change." TCRP Report No. 28 is also available in portable document format (PDF). Double-click on the file(s) below to access the report. (A free copy of the Adobe Acrobat Reader is available at https://www.adobe.com.) PLEASE NOTE: Because of the very large size of these files, it may take a long time--possibly more than 1 hour collectively--to download. We regret the inconvenience.

TCRP Report No. 28, Part A

TCRP Report No. 28, Part B